Experts predict: the world economy will recover in the second half of the year
Reference News Network reported on January 6 According to Japan’s “Fuji Sankei Business Daily” reported on January 1, due to the continued impact of the spread of the new crown epidemic, the world economy is expected to remain in a downturn in the first half of 2021. It will recover in half a year. Experts generally believe that the economic recovery is mainly due to the popularization of vaccines and the additional fiscal stimulus policies adopted by governments.
Economists of major financial institutions in the United States generally believe that the world economy is currently in the most severe situation since the Great Depression. Due to the sharp increase in the number of infections at the end of last year and the restrictions imposed by some countries such as lockdowns, the world economy will not start well in 2021. .
More optimistic is Morgan Stanley’s forecast. The company’s analysts predict that the world economy will grow by 6.4% in 2021, achieving a V-shaped recovery. On the other hand, Citigroup’s forecast is pessimistic, with its forecast that the world economy will grow by 5% this year. However, even the 5% predicted by Citigroup is much better than the 2020 economic growth forecast (-4.4%) released by the International Monetary Fund.
The consensus among experts is that although the economy tends to recover, the employment rate and inflation rate will continue to be low in most parts of the world. For this reason, central banks will have to continue to implement loose monetary policies.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Group predicts that the world economy will grow by 5.4% in 2021. The company predicts that as most countries are busy fighting the new crown epidemic, the world economy will encounter difficulties in the beginning of 2021. With the widespread vaccination of vaccines and the additional fiscal stimulus policy, the economic growth rate will rebound in the middle of the year. However, even if the economy recovers, the world’s inflation rate will remain at a relatively low level, and policy interest rates in most countries will remain close to zero.
Citigroup predicts that the world economy will grow by 5% in 2021. The pace of recovery in various countries and regions is uneven, which is an unfavorable factor for the growth of the world economy in 2021. Although the popularization of vaccines is critical to future economic growth, the lost GDP cannot be recovered.
In addition, Citigroup also predicts that although vaccines will help the world economy to take off again, it is expected that the supply of vaccines in emerging countries will be long overdue, and it will take until after 2022 that countries can move forward together towards recovery.
Goldman Sachs Group predicts that the world economy will grow by 6% in 2021. The company believes that after the European city lockdown is lifted, coupled with vaccination, the economies of all countries will recover quickly, just like the situation after the city lockdown is lifted in the spring of 2020.
The company believes that central banks in developed countries are likely to maintain relatively loose monetary policies in the next few years. Although the economy is picking up, the pace of employment recovery will be slower and the inflation rate will be lower than the central bank’s target.
JP Morgan Chase predicts that the world economy will grow by 5.8%. The company predicts that the economic growth of Europe, the United States and other countries will slow down sharply at the beginning of the year. However, due to the successful development of vaccines, restrictions on the movement of people will be gradually lifted, so the economic growth prospects for the whole of 2021 are more optimistic.